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| INTERVIEW WITH MS MICHELE WUCKER, AUTHOR |
| Recently in August 2021, our very own Mr. Venkat conducted an online interview-cum-discussion with Ms Michele Wucker, a best-selling author and popular TED-talk speaker, over her book Gray Rhinos: The Obvious Dangers We Ignore. It is the #1 best-selling English language book in China and a #1 Amazon bestseller in the financial risk management category. We have reproduced some important highlights from the interview. |
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How is Gray Rhino different from the rare
Black Swan events |
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| Gray rhinos refer to highly probable, high impact threats which are still neglected. This is contrast to black swan events which have low probability of occurrence and have high impact. Though there is already a metaphor called ‘elephant in the room’ for what’s obvious, gray rhino is different. The ‘rhino’ part can be explained as follows: if a rhino charges at someone, it’s easy to perceive but one doesn’t know exactly how it will play out. The ‘gray’ part refers to not paying enough attention to what’s obvious. The concept of gray rhino underlines the difference between people who see the obvious problem and do something about it versus the ones who wait till the problem is out of sight and let someone else deal with it. |
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The crackdown on big tech in China:
role of Gray Rhinos |
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| Even in the U.S., people are looking at various issues associated with technology like social media, dissemination of misinformation, and data privacy. Europe is proactive about data privacy as shown by the enactment of GDPR regulation, though that has its own set of issues. Over the course of her visits to China, Ms Wucker found the Chinese media questions as more forward looking and focused on these obvious problems (e.g., financial risks) than the U.S. ones. They were talking about those problems and paying attention though the problems are not easily to solve. |
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| How to deal with Gray Rhinos |
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| The way to deal with gray rhinos depends on where one is in the stage of crisis. Ms Wucker has proposed 5 stages of dealing with gray rhinos inspired by the 5 stages of grief as proposed by Dr Elizabeth Kübler-Ross: denial, muddling, diagnosis, panic, action-tracking and adjusting. Not everyone reacts in the same way to a gray rhino. People who can consciously recognize the rhino in front of them are the ones who are most likely to respond. |
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Why don’t people act on
Gray rhinos (other than inertia) |
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| There are many reasons like underlying personality, peer pressure, etc. Nobody likes the person who raises red flags, he/she may even get punished for it. The way certain processes are structured doesn’t give the right incentives, for example, the short-term nature of US political cycles forces candidates to think about next elections as soon as they are elected, election of candidates catering to the most extreme section of population because of the way U.S. primary system is set up, KPIs such as quarterly reports for companies force companies to look at the short term instead of longer term. There are organizational, structural, cultural, and cognitive obstacles in the way of acting on gray rhinos and people need to be aware of them. |
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| Gray Rhinos can present opportunities |
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| Taking the example of internet, TV networks saw it as a threat whereas companies like Yahoo, Google saw it as an opportunity. Organizations which have included climate change as part of their ESG strategy have had their assets under management almost doubled over past 18 months. Taking cue from baby rhinos, one should pay attention to problems when they are small and do something about them. It is easier to manage the problems and succeed at that stage. |
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Why and how should one be trained in
identifying Gray Rhinos |
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| Dealing with uncertainty is very important, as has also been seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is also important to look at the relationship between uncertainty and risk, and to understand things that one can control, e.g., one’s decision-making process, understanding of purpose, priorities, and the ability to recognize what’s in front of them. It also involves the ability to relinquish certain amount of control and learn to look around challenges for opportunities, specifically areas where one has natural advantages and can draw on their strengths, and if there are weak areas one needs to identify whom they can count upon to fill those gaps. |
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Importance of governance
in dealing with Gray rhinos |
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| The book takes an example from the Indian state of Gujarat, where auditors hired by a company to inspect their accounts were paid by a third party and received bonuses for accurate reports, were 80% less likely to make false reports. If one is being paid by the same company that they are auditing, they have less incentive to point out problems. It’s similar to the ratings industry where companies pay the rating agency. Instead, companies can be assigned rating agency from a random pool. Similarly, with book writing, where there are editors, copy editors, proof-readers and beta readers to look at the book manuscript from a fresh perspective. Basically, we often need a fresh set of eyes to identify gray rhinos. |
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75 KM FOR 75 YEARS
OF INDEPENDENCE |
| Originally hailing from around Chilika lake, Puri district of Odisha, the first thing that strikes you about Mr. Dharanidhar Jally is his unique surname. It is derived from the Hindustani word for a fisherman’s net: jaal. Mr. Jally walked 75 kilometres in a single day on 15th August 2021, to commemorate the occasion of India’s 75th Independence Day. But how did things fall into place for this tremendous feat? To find out about that, we need to visit his past. |
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Mr. Jally graduated from the Department of Agricultural Engineering, IIT Kharagpur in 1991. While at IIT KGP, apart from being good at studies, he excelled in the sporting arena. He was the captain of the institute volleyball team while also trying his hand at other sports like football and swimming. It was perhaps at IIT KGP, that he developed a passion for sports and fitness which remained with him through his later life as well. |
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After pursuing an MBA from FMS (Faculty of Management Studies) Delhi, Mr. Jally arrived in Singapore in 2004. It’s been a long time, almost 17 years, since he has called the lion city his home. Though a new place can be very daunting, especially due to different culture, languages, and system from what is there back in India, Mr. Jally didn’t have to struggle much adjusting to a life in Singapore. He has always liked it here, because of the clean air, minimal pollution and strict law and order for which Singapore is famous worldwide, and is a Permanent Resident since 2006. |
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| He is currently the VP (Vice President) of IT at Mapletree Investments and specializes in SAP financials. He has a son and a daughter, both in their teens, with the former starting his National Service next year and the latter is enrolled in Singapore Institute of Management (SIM). It is interesting to note that Mr. Jally seems to have passed on his passion for fitness to his son as well, who is into bodybuilding. |
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| Having a job and a busy life in Singapore didn’t mean Mr. Jally ignored his health. His earlier background in sports and passion for fitness helped him maintain a healthy lifestyle. He regularly walks almost 10 kms daily between his home in Sengkang and office at Pasir Panjang Road. He is part of a sports group formed in 2016 and consisting of IIT Alumni in Singapore. Their members go for marathons and hiking at popular spots. Mr. Jally has regularly taken part in marathons such as OSIM and Standard Chartered. He is also part of a global group for IIT KGP RK hall residents. The group members do a freedom run worldwide every year on 15th August. Since he is a diabetic, walking is even more important for Mr. Jally to help keep his sugar levels in check. In his own words, he feels something amiss if he doesn’t go out for a walk every day, especially during the times of Covid-19, when people have been forced to work from home for long periods of time. |
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| The stamina that Mr. Jally built over the years through regular walks and marathons is the reason why he could walk 75kms in a single day on 15th August, 2021. In fact, there was no prior planning involved and he didn’t have to think much before embarking on the uphill task. He was supposed to do the walk with another friend who had to back out later, but this didn’t deter Mr. Jally. He had just completed a 56kms walk on the occasion of the 56th National Day of Singapore on 9th August. He set out on the morning of 15th August from his home for the Indian embassy at Grange Road. It was a particularly hot day and he had burns on his scalp by the time he ended his walk. He took only a few breaks in between to rest his body and hydrate himself. He attended the Independence Day celebrations at Indian embassy and went back home taking a route that touched Orchard Road, Marina Bay Sands and Hougang, covering a total of 75 kms. For this amazing feat, he was awarded the 2nd place for 74 KM run in 50-59 years category of the 3rd edition of HDOR freedom race. |
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